  |
|||
 
|
  AGENDA SIMON It's confidence and supply agreement with Labour has resulted in the longest serving coalition government under MMP, however according to the latest UMR inside poll, United Future is sitting under the 5% threshold at just 3%. Leader Peter Dunne is with me now from Alexandra Park in Auckland. Good morning Mr Dunne. PETER Good morning Simon. SIMON That’s the venue where the Barmy Army's campervan city is going to be next week isn't it? PETER So I believe but they're not here yet. SIMON You’re not the advance party for them? PETER No no there was a big crowd here last night I thought that was the advance meeting but it was a race meeting. SIMON Takes all sorts doesn’t it. Colin James in the Herald this week said a lot of what United Future stands for swings closer to National, that’s the reality isn't it? PETER I don’t think it necessarily is we're a centre party so we can work constructively with either side we support the Labour Party on a number of initiatives that it's taken often at our suggestion and there are things about the National Party that we quite like too, but we're quite capable of working with either and that’s gotta be the role that a centre party can play. SIMON How do we judge you though if we don’t which way you wish to go beforehand, how do we know where our vote's going to end up. PETER You judge us on our performance and our performance over the last three years has been extraordinarily good, eight members of parliament we've achieved all the of the things we set out to achieve in terms of the policies we put before the people at the last election, this last budget for instance there are 300 million dollars of United Future spending initiatives contained in that budget, if you look at the corporate and the other tax changes that have been included that figure rises by another 600 million plus. This party of eight has delivered more than most governments of considerably larger numbers have been able to in just one term. That’s how you judge us. SIMON So you claim that you've achieved under Labour therefore you must be aligned to them more. PETER No we could work equally constructively with National, bear in mind Simon I'm the only person in the history of New Zealand politics to have been a member of a National government as a minister and as a Labour government as a minister, I've proved I can work with both sides, we've demonstrated in the last three years as you say we've had the most stable governing arrangement under MMP since it came in, I saw the Herald yesterday and its editorial said we've removed any doubt about the future survival of MMP because of the way we've behaved ourselves. So I have no doubt at all that if the voters chose to install a National led government after this election and we were asked to work with them we could do so and we could do so as constructively as we have done with the Labour government over the last three years. SIMON But in 96 and 99 you ruled out working with Labour in advance and 2002 you ended up supporting them, how do you justify that sort of flip flop. PETER In 96 and 99 I had very specific reasons which do not apply any longer, in 2002 I made that very clear and what I've said this time round is that it's for the voters of New Zealand to decide which party they want to lead the government, it's then for other parties to work out what their relationship with that party is, it's the voters' choice it's not the politicians role to configure governments, the voters have the final say. SIMON The Dominion Post on the 20th of April said this time you want a formal coalition agreement with Labour and at least one member in Cabinet who would that be - you – what portfolio? PETER Oh look I'm not going to talk about what we might or might not want, the important thing that’s got to happen first Simon is the election's gotta be held, the votes have gotta be counted and we've gotta see what the lie of the land is, but I will say this, over the last three years we've proved our worth, we I think are ready to take the step up to be a formal coalition partner and when we get that opportunity then we'll talk with whoever about the shape of that coalition but I'm certainly not gonna do that now. SIMON Well the problem we've got as voters is we don’t know what you stand for who are you? PETER Oh yes you do know what we stand for, you will see over this conference our key policies are going to be rolled out for the election, you'll see from our performance that we've been the reliable moderate centre party that we set out to be, the fact that both the Labour and the National Party would dearly love to have us as their preferred partner demonstrates that we're able to work with both, demonstrates that we don’t have the sort of anxiety about a small party either dragging the major party off to the extremes or not being able to hack the pace. SIMON You keep emphasising the centrism but we don’t have any detail, we don’t know what you hang your hat on. PETER Well I think you do, I mean you need to look at our record. We've got a very strong commitment to the family as the core of New Zealand society and to making families strong because that’s what makes communities strong. We've got a very strong record in terms of pushing for changes to the student loan scheme, better funding for education, tax changes, better opportunity for business, all of these things which we're gonna be talking about this weekend. We've got a very strong record of those things. SIMON How do you react then to being called the lapdog or the poodle party as Colin James called you? PETER I think that comes from people who are envious, the people who call us that…. SIMON That’s the perception. PETER I think it's a generated perception by those parties who when they had a chance in government walked out because they couldn't hack the pace, or in another case imploded because the going got tough. The confident predictions were at the time of the last election or just after it that we would go the same way. The fact that we haven't, the fact that this agreement is the longest we've had under MMP I think rankles those failures of the past, and I think that those parties are now getting very frustrated and very jealous that we've been able to achieve something that they with all their bluster couldn't do, and that’s just plain old fashioned jealousy it's not my problem but it's certainly theirs. SIMON Polling scenarios though are suggesting there's every chance you'll end up in a coalition with either New Zealand First or the Greens, have you got a preference there? PETER I don’t actually take much notice of polls, if I'd believe polls before the last election … SIMON That’s convenient though isn't it? PETER We wouldn’t have been here at all. Oh it's the truth though there's only one poll that counts and as I've said we'll wait and see what the voters decide and then we'll make our decisions in the light of that. SIMON You keep emphasising stability and commonsense, does this come at the expense of defining who you are, don’t you risk irrelevance? PETER No it doesn’t, in fact the fact that we've had political stability over the last three years because of our involvement has hardly been irrelevant for New Zealanders because it's coincided with the greatest period and most prolonged period of economic prosperity since the war and that’s given people a stable family environment, it's given them better incomes, it's given the country more confidence, that’s hardly being irrelevant that’s really being at the centre of things. SIMON Do you support Paul Adams fasting over issues? I mean you've been emphasising commonsense, is that a commonsense approach in a secular 21st century …. PETER That was his choice, it wasn’t my choice, it's his choice but in an open tolerant society… SIMON But do you support him? PETER In an open tolerant society Simon I support the right of people to express their own opinions. SIMON Well you head up a party essentially made up of three elements don’t you, the Christian faction, the old original United Party and the outdoor recreation party, how do you reconcile those three very different factions? PETER Oh very easy. SIMON Do you suffer policy paralysis as a result. PETER No absolutely not and again the record shows that, very easily reconciled, all of these groups have common interests, a common interest in New Zealand a common interest in good strong family environments, the best opportunities for our kids, that this country being the best place in which you can live work and raise your family and enjoy getting out and enjoying the great outdoors, there's a remarkable common link between those three wings and in fact this is one seamless party. SIMON Those are noble platitudes but when can we expect the detail that’s going to fill out this grand vision of yours? PETER For the third time in this interview Simon let me say this conference this weekend is going to see a number of those key policies rolled out, I invite you to come along and see. SIMON Well do you want to share any of them with the voters? PETER This is a conference, the party, they are going to be announced, all of the sessions are in public, I'm not gonna pre announce what we're gonna be saying a little later on today right now, but it's certainly going to be no secret. SIMON Who'll be filling out the top list positions? PETER We haven't decided our list yet Simon but under our rules the leader and the deputy leader have the first two positions, we're going through a regional ranking process at the moment, I would expect over the next six to seven weeks or so we will finalise the list. SIMON The reality of MMP is you are going to probably have to work with some parties with whom you have fundamental differences it seems, one MP we spoke to says you've been vicious to the Greens because you see yourself in competition with them for the attentions of Labour, how true is that? PETER Well I don’t think it's true at all, we've been critical of the Greens because we're not pro drugs the way they are, we're not in favour of every passing terrorist group they way they are, and we're not flaky the way they are, what we've been working constructively with Labour over the last three years to do is to provide a good stable reliable government and I think that’s what upsets the Greens because again when they had the chance they couldn't do it. SIMON On the other side of the coin though youv’e been quoted again in the Dominion Post as saying you reckon New Zealand First's reputation as a pariah will work in your favour come coalition bargaining time. Is that what you think? PETER Well New Zealand First's record showed that after 20 months they packed up their tent, walked away, couldn't hack the pace in government, I think it's clear from the last election that neither National or Labour wanted a bar of them, I think it's also the case this time round. Now what voters have to work out is, is it worth reposing trust in a party that the other parties aren’t prepared to even talk to or do you want to be constructive and play the commonsense card, take out the insurance policy which means you are gonna have a moderate partner for either National or Labour, one that is going to be positive, one that’s gonna be able to achieve in terms of what it wants to achieve, but one which isn't going to insist on having the whole show run its way or else it's gonna walk away in high dudgeon. SIMON But the reality is that you may well have to work with the Greens or New Zealand First, how comfortable would be working with Winston Peters? PETER Well we've worked with all parties on a whole range of issues over the last three years. SIMON You’re sitting here throwing barbs at them though right now and then you might have to work with them? PETER Oh and you’re telling me they wouldn’t in a similar situation throw barbs at me, that’s the stuff of politics Simon, it's the cut and thrust of debate, but when the crunch comes what we've shown in the House, in one to one negotiations in Select Committees is that we can work constructively with parties over whom we might have quite strong disagreements on other issues where we have common ground, and we can do that again and I don’t have any difficulty in that respect. SIMON At the end of the day are you concerned that your centrist position may be seen as fence sitting and therefore not aligned to either side or do you believe it is the shades of grey that count as you've said before. PETER I think it is the shape of things to come. I think if you go out and talk to most New Zealanders about where they see their future lying, their concerns are very specific, they're concerned about their families, they're concerned about the opportunities for their kids, they're concerned about the cost of tertiary education and what it means for them, they worry about what happens as they grow older, they are basic core concerns, and they get very frustrated at politicians who want to see things always through this ideological prism or that ideological prism, because people don’t work that way, they take a bit of this a bit of that and they make their own decisions. What they're fed up with is this constant you've gotta see it from the National side of the fence or the Labour side of the fence, people do live their lives down the middle of the road and we're the middle of the road party that supports them. SIMON United Future Leader, Peter Dunne, thank you very much for you time today. PETER Thank you Simon.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SIMON Peter Dunne occupying the centre, why? KATHRYN Oh well it's a safe place to be isn't it. SIMON Is it? KATHRYN Yes it is a safe place to be in New Zealand. SIMON It's a crowded place to be. KATHRYN No it's the way the vast majority of New Zealanders vote, it's why both Labour and National have moved consistently back towards the centre and every time National tries to move right there's a great sort of panic within the caucus saying no you can't do this and you can't do that. Look why does he exist, he exists because he is one of those political phenomena like Winston Peters, he is a career politician and around his has sprung up this party. EWART But he doesn’t have that same charisma as Peters though. SIMON It's a one man party again. KATHRYN Well he doesn’t have the same vote that Winston Peters has either or the same number of MPs. SIMON But charisma attracts a certain portion of the population, so does commonsense. KATHRYN Commonsense certainly did it for him last time, he is a good solid operator even in that interview, he's quite capable of holding up a debate. The issue is why did he get so many MPs last time. We know that in that election campaign Helen Clark had gone out and said we want to be a majority government and the electorate said no, at the same time that she was scrapping with her logical coalition partner the Greens over GE this guy came through the middle and promised stability and promised not to throw his toys out of the cot and promised commonsense and filled that void. Can he do it again, is it the same demand for that sort of stability? Stability is his one selling point. SIMON Well of course that was great in 2002, memories of New Zealand First tight five were still reasonably fresh but is it valid now, are people more interested – tax cuts have suddenly risen in people's consideration of the most important issues, tax is rated with 14.9% of the issue of those concerned up from 5.8% last… KATHRYN That suits United Future because they are in favour of tax reductions, they’ve been promoted income splitting for donkeys years and not able to get that through, but the question is is the demand there for the same role and I think he is at risk of only regaining maybe a third, maybe half of the people who voted for him last time, that would still give him three or four MPs and perhaps his precious place in Cabinet. SIMON You’re a man who exudes commonsense Ewart, are you gonna vote for Peter Dunne? KATHRYN What an indictment that is. SIMON I'm praising you. EWART Is it? Oh it's like calling a guy nice. Commonsense and nice oh goodness. Kathryn isn't this sort of middle ground just becoming more and more frayed, I mean there doesn’t seem, like in Germany they do seem to have a sort of a permanent coalition partner there, I think the Free Democrats. SIMON I expect it's far more fluid than it used to be though isn't it? KATHRYN One of the issues is that New Zealanders are very big vote splitters, up to 40% at the last election were voting for one party for their party vote, another party for their electorate vote, now that opens up quite a raft of opportunity for the minor parties, and even in the sort of polling results you’re looking at now, say 2 to 3%, if they rise to 5 to 6% the Greens for example aren’t at 3%, you know they will cross the 5% threshold. That opens out quite an opportunity because people do seem to be willing to split their vote, but Dunne's sole selling point as far as I'm concerned has been his delivery of stable government, you raise a good point do people remember the collapse of the 96/98 coalition, do they really remember the Alliance imploding and how the last year of that government went astray as well, and is that going to be a driver for your vote this time. That is Mr Dunne's prime philosophy. SIMON The last three years have been stable but that could be counter productive to United Future. KATHRYN In what way? SIMON Well stability is there so people take it for granted. KATHRYN But if he hasn’t demonstrated it then he's got nothing left to sell. I do think the one thing he can say he's achieved he's put a complete kybosh on cannabis law reform which the Greens would have agitated for much more strongly had it not been in the United Future deal with Labour that it's off the agenda and how many votes there are in that I don’t know. EWART The thing I'm just sort of worrying about is whether the – even his own coalition has a broad spectrum of people you know shooters and fishers and … SIMON Huntin' fishin' shootin' Christian party. EWART And then the Christians on the other side, I mean does the Destiny Church have any political role to play in this party or is it taking votes away from United Future? KATHRYN Well it raises a good point because people assume that United Future is a Christian party cos it has a number of Christian MPs but it did not get elected on the basis of being a Christian party. No one knew who any of the other candidates were, they knew who Dunne was and this whole argument of whether it is a Christian party and whether it's going to attract Christian vote, its leadership plays that down greatly, its leadership does not want to be put into that category, and what you will see in this list is that the Outdoor Recreation Party will certainly have its candidate pretty high on that list and it is bringing a good chunk of votes to this election for United Future quite a significant voting base. Whether it attracts a Christian vote, if the family message which is its core message, we are for families whatever that means, if the family message is appealing to mainstream Christian voters then perhaps there's some votes there as well. SIMON That is the big question. Transcripts are copyright to Front Page Ltd and may contain errors.They should be checked against a copy of the programme for accuracy. Copyright to Front Page Ltd but may be used PROVIDED attribution is made to TVOne and Agenda |
||