Agenda transcript: 13 05 2006

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AGENDA Presented by LISA OWEN

LISA	Don Brash was a political novice when he assumed the National Party leadership in 2003, he'd only been an MP for just over a year. Since then the number of National MPs has almost doubled, but even though polls show the party is more or less level pegging with Labour there are continuing questions about Dr Brash's leadership, just how effective is the party proving to be in opposition. Well Dr Brash joins me now.

	Let's cut straight to the chase Dr Brash the American strategist I mean how seriously did you take their proposals and when and why was their offer scuttled.

DON BRASH – National Party Leader
	I didn’t take the proposals very seriously at all, they sent me an email which as you will have seen from Winston Peters leaked email, Winston Peters email he leaked, I got effectively on the 20th of July 2004, what he hasn’t in fact got evidence of is what I actually said, in fact I emailed them back the same day and said look we need to talk on the telephone about this, in fact I said to them within 48 hours of that email just being leaked, no we don’t want to proceed with this thank you very much. Why? Frankly because American strategists have nothing to contribute to an MMP election in a New Zealand environment.

LISA	How widely did you consult with your own MPs on whether you should follow up on this offer?

DON	I didn’t consult very widely with them at all, they should have seen from the email, I sent that email to I think five or six people, two or three caucus colleagues and two or three advisors and the unanimous view of all of us was that this did not make sense.

LISA	Well who leaked the email then if so few people were consulted about it, who put it out there?

DON	Unfortunately I don’t know that, we've had a firm which specialises in IT stuff look at that, indeed over some weeks they looked at that, there have been a number of leaks as you know from the computer system in parliament, I do not know who leaked it but frankly if I were Trevor Mallard and Winston Peters this week I'd be feeling very frustrated, they tried to use that leaked email to suggest that I had lied last year, they utterly failed, there was nothing in that email which suggested either that we had vast amounts of American money or the Americans were pulling our policy or strategy strings.

LISA	But if everything was so innocent why didn’t you put this out there at the time when you were asked about American involvement in the campaign, why didn’t you just disclose all of this and end it before it even started?

DON	Because the accusation was that we were being funded by Americans and that our policy strings were being pulled by Americans, there was nothing in that email which suggested anything to the contrary, nothing, zero, zilch, and that’s what – I can't quite decide frankly whether to be flattered amused or angry about this, two guys approached us from the United States said perhaps we can help you, we said thanks very much but no, how does that in any sense at all make me a liar about what Trevor Mallard said.

LISA	Why not just burst Winston Peters' bubble and put all the information out there, all the emails that might relate to this?

DON	Well there are no other emails other than one which I went back to them on the 20th July 2004 and said look we need to talk about this on the phone and we did, that’s the only other email I could find, I looked for it by the way this week.

LISA	Alright well some people might see a bit of a pattern developing here, a year later after these exchange of emails there was the Exclusive Brethren saga, how many meetings did you have with them, and how many of your other MPs were there or you consulted with over that?

DON	Well listen let's not talk about the Exclusive Brethren saga, the Exclusive Brethren did have two or three meetings with me, I acknowledge that.

LISA	You alone was it Dr Brash?

DON	Ah, I don’t think I had other Members of Parliament present with me, well certainly not the last one, the one which where they talked about issuing pamphlets I think I was the only MP present at that, I can't recall whether we had staff present or not, I recall the meeting was at twenty to six at the evening, I didn’t have much time.

LISA	Right so did you take this to your MPs, did you discuss whether you should become involved in this?

DON	No, no – I wasn’t involved, I wasn’t involved at any point, they just came to us and said look we are fed up with the government, we don’t like the government, we're gonna put some pamphlets out, and I said well that sounds great, they were anti government pamphlets I was told, I didn’t read them, I didn’t write them, I didn’t approve them, they were simply people saying look we don’t like the government, I said we don’t either. So there was nothing to ask the MPs about.

LISA	So basically you handled it yourself?

DON	Yeah absolutely, and why not?

LISA	Well it seems – you're a businessman at heart with the sort of sympathies and instincts of a chief executive, are you struggling with this political art of consensus decision making?

DON	No I am a very consensus decision maker for most issues, some issues of course the leader the has to make decisions on himself and that was one in the heat of the campaign, everybody was frantically busy, there was nothing to consult about, I wasn’t being asked to endorse something to approve, to sign off on, they were simply saying we're doing this.

LISA	Alright well let's look at National's policy on Telecom unbundling, what is the party's policy on that?

DON	National Party like every other New Zealander wants to see cheap fast internet access for all New Zealanders, the government's own Telecommunications Commissioner spent four years looking at that question and recommended against mandatory unbundling. The Australian experience of unbundling, they unbundled in 1999, didn’t prove to have a dramatic impact on access in Australia.

LISA	So what's your party's policy?

DON	We're saying look we're not yet convinced but we will support the legislation to enforce unbundling through to a select committee so we can all hear the evidence, if the evidence says this will really make appositive difference of course we'll support it. But the government hasn’t given us that evidence yet.

LISA	Well it's a long time coming for consideration – unbundling – and you still don’t have a distinct position on it.

DON	No no, the government's own Telecommunications Commissioner who they set up to advise them on this issue spent years looking at it, recommended against what the government is now doing, and we've said look if the government's got some new evidence let's see it and if the evidence is good we'll support it, but so far nothing that we've seen indicates that the goal which we share with the government, cheaper faster access, will be delivered by this particular policy, if it does, great.

LISA	So despite the time that’s passed you don’t have a clear position on that?

DON	Lisa no, you can't get away with that. We had a very clear position in the election, it was the same position exactly as the government's position, mandatory unbundling doesn’t seem to work, that was the government's own conclusion from its own Telecommunications Commissioner. Now if the government's got new evidence great, we'll support it, but let's see it we haven’t seen it yet.

LISA	What's you relationship with Rod Dean in Telecom, I mean do you dine together, have you enjoyed the fruits of the corporate box, or what is the relationship?

DON	As far as I know I've never been in the Telecom corporate box, I've known Roderick Dean since he was doing a PhD thesis on foreign investment in New Zealand, I'd just finished a PhD thesis on foreign investment in Australia, I've known him for a very long time, have I had meals with him, yes I certainly have, recently no. I admire him hugely he's a very competent chief executive and now chairman.

LISA	How much discussion would you have had on National policy in relation to Telecom, unbundling of Telecom.

DON	None recently at all.

LISA	Well you have some?

DON	Certainly not since the election.

LISA	So what's not recently, when would you have last discussed this issue with him?

DON	Well I'm not sure that I've ever discussed this particular issue with him, I've discussed it with Teresa Gatting pre election.

LISA	And what did you tell her then your position was?

DON	That we agreed with the government's own Telecommunications Commissioner in recommending against it.

LISA	So you told her then that you didn’t support unbundling?

DON	That’s correct. Let me say something else. Since the election we've had presentations from people who oppose unbundling and we had scheduled – had scheduled before this government announcement – submissions from people who strongly support unbundling, people who are other telecommunication suppliers, Call Plus, Whoosh and so on, and I think we were engaged in this careful reappraisal of our policy but there was nothing indecisive about that it was very clear.

LISA	Well I mean Matt McCarten, formerly of the Alliance, came out last week saying that Telecom came to them and wanted to specifically know what their policies were in order to decide whether they would give them donations, I mean can you tell us what kind of donations you’ve had from Telecom?

DON	I can't, and you will see in this morning's Herald Judy Kirk herself is not aware of specific donations from Telecom, we did get some donations through trusts.

LISA	Telecom lists its donations in its annual report.

DON	That’s right and that’s why Judy Kirk has said I'll have to look at that and see if there's anything comparable in the National Party's own records, but they may well have made a contribution through a trust in which case we wouldn’t know about it.

LISA	So you're ignorant to any Telecom donations to your party?

DON	And the National Party Leader should be, we should not be aware of who gives money to the National Party.

LISA	Right so you're oblivious to it okay. Well what about Julian Robertson what about donations from him?

DON	I don’t know about what he has given, he has publicly said that he's contributed financially to both National and Labour, that I know. I've known Julian Robertson and I'm delighted to say so more than a decade, he's a very remarkable man, he's got a very strong interest in New Zealand.

LISA	He's a very wealthy man.

DON	He is indeed, nothing sinful or criminal about that.

LISA	No.

DON	He's invested heavily in New Zealand both personally and …

LISA	What about heavily in the National Party?

DON	Well I don’t know, as I say, now he's said he's contributed to the National Party, if he has I'm delighted, but I don’t know the detail of that at all.

LISA	Alright, I'd like to talk to you about the Maori Party, how significant in your opinion do you think the Maori Party's going to be at the next election?

DON	Well I can't be dogmatic about that no one knows of course but they are certainly performing well in parliament. I've had a I think positive relationship with both Tariana Turia and Pita Sharples, they're both impressive politicians and they seem to be doing very well.

LISA	So how do you plan to get along with them then because they're obviously not happy with your stance on the Maori seats.

DON	Well let's not make it may stance, National Party stance.

LISA	Well Jerry Brownlee has blurred the issue the somewhat.

DON	No no, Jerry Brownlee's speech was unambiguous, we do not support retention of two separate racially based electoral rolls, his speech was quite clear about that. He miscued on a TV1 interview that’s true, and he said that, he said it to me, he said it to the caucus, he said it to the media, the National Party does not support racially based electorates.

LISA	Even though one of your own MPs Georgina Te Heu Heu is on the Maori roll.

DON	Look the Maori seats have been there for a long time, she's been on the Maori roll since she was old enough to vote she's told us, well she's got that choice, she's got an absolute right to exercise that choice, but the National Party is quite unambiguously not supportive of separate racially based electoral rolls.

LISA	That in essence could potentially eliminate the Maori Party and a possible ally for you, you might be shooting yourself in the foot.

DON	Well so be it, from our point of view we cannot support a racially electoral system, now let me be also clear, after the election I found there were many other policies in which the National Party and the Maori Party agreed, we have similar views on the need for more parental choice in education, we have similar views on the urgent need, the desperate need indeed for welfare reform, so we accepted we could not come within a bull's roar of agreement on the Maori seats, that was a fact, they wanted us to entrench them, we said don’t be ridiculous.

LISA	So you'd potentially forego power for the sake of a compromise?

DON	No listen, MMP is a system I did not vote for, the reality is whether we can implement any policy, tax, welfare, education, law and order, depends on how many votes we get, party votes we get in the election, and I'm very hopeful that next election we'll be able to implement our policies.

LISA	You’ve arguably had a pretty rough week I mean you could shut down all the backbiting and politicking, the unveiling of leaked emails, you could shut that right down right now by displaying some innovative policy that captures the public and the media's attention so where is this policy from the National Party?

DON	Look the National Party went into the last election with fantastic policies on tax, on Resource Management Act, on roading, on law and order, on welfare, on education, and we got the best vote the National Party has got since 1990, nothing wrong with our policies at all, and we're running those policies again, we still believe in those policies, we haven’t departed from those policies at all, we've got some additional policies to make clear on environment, on health and so on, but our basic policy framework is absolutely sound.

LISA	I need to ask you are you having to flog the Maori issue the race issue your Orewa speech because there's nothing else no other point of difference for you?

DON	No that’s absolutely no the case, in fact I've got five regional conferences this month and covering each of our five main election campaign policies during those five campaigns. I talked about the Treaty, this weekend I'm talking about law and order, a couple of weekends ago I was talking about tax at each of them, so we're covering all of the main policy agendas we had in the campaign because they're all still our policy.

LISA	Are you talking specifics, are you putting the numbers on the table in relation to tax, what have you got to offer if not Kiwi Saver what have you got to replace ANZUS, are you talking specifics?

DON	Okay let's talk on tax. We went into the election saying 85% of taxpayers would face a top tax rate of 19% if National won. Now the next election could be two and a half years away, there's no way that any political party can responsibly say exactly what rates will be in two and half years' time. What I have said is New Zealand wants a tax system which gives every hard working Kiwi an incentive to get ahead under their own steam, right now they don’t have that. So we're committed to lower taxes and committed to giving New Zealanders an incentive to get ahead.

LISA	If not Kiwi Saver then what have you got to offer in place of it?

DON	Kiwi Saver has got nothing to do with tax.

LISA	No no I'm moving on to Kiwi Save.

DON	To saving? Well we know that all the government's advisors plus the Institute of Economic Research have said this is not gonna make any material impact on savings, it's not a savings scheme, at best it's a first home buyer's grant which will affect a very small number of people, if the government's concerned about savings this will not do it.

LISA	So what would you do?

DON	Well we have not announced what we'd do on that point yet, but we know that doesn’t work.

LISA	So you don’t have a specific policy?

DON	Not yet no, but it is key that if New Zealanders are going to be able to save they have to earn more and pay less tax and the National Party is strongly committed to both of those.

LISA	Alright well let's throw things open to our panel this morning, we'll go first to Fran O'Sullivan from the New Zealand Herald.

FRAN O'SULLIVAN – Political Commentator
	Dr Brash I'm really quite concerned that the last few months have really seen some backsliding by National of some fairly firm policy planks at the last election, you’ve had now in play, you’ve moved back on the nuclear ships issue, you’ve moved back on tax, now you can't say what your tax policies will be, what is the situation with Maori seats, there's a lot of confusion. Where are you taking the high ground? This week you have a government putting up a budget which will be vastly unpopular for the sort of people you represent, there are not tax cuts, why aren’t you grabbing the high ground, why aren’t you presented an alternative budget, I frankly find it amazing that National is being so passive.

DON	Well let's be clear, we haven’t backslid on any substantial policy what we have said as I said to Lisa a moment ago, we can't be specific as to rates in two and a half years time but I've repeated at every regional conference in the last month for example that we are committed to lower taxes and that’s an absolutely fundamental bottom line, Maori seats not at all, I said Jerry miscued, Jerry himself has said he miscued, his speech was unambiguous.

FRAN	But what he is doing though is – what is happening is the perception is there in the public mind of confusion of not …

LISA	Muddied waters.

DON	Well that was an unfortunate sentence that he used on TV1 and I accept that, I have made it unambiguously clear within 12 hours of that appearing that the National Party's policy has not and will not be changing, so very crystal clear on that point. On the nuclear ships we went into the election saying there will be no change in the anti nuclear legislation, if at some future date there's a judgement we make that it might be in New Zealand's interests to make a change we won't make a change even then without a referendum. Now all we've said at the moment is that referendum issue is on the table for discussion.

FRAN	But this is just in a very short timeframe Dr Brash, you have had things that were firm just a few months ago are no longer firm, where are the areas and points of differentiation that National is making now that presents a really crystal clear alternative against a government which irrespective of the Telecom leak is actually starting to do some major stuff around infrastructure or rebuilding?

DON	Well I think the infrastructure is mainly talk, we know from six and a half years experience that Labour talks about fixing road, State Highway 20 here in Auckland is a good example, Tranzit has repeatedly promised to get that done quickly, it's just begun construction. The government's record in tax is hopeless, we've got the Australian government cutting taxes, three or four years in a row.

FRAN	But you see you're reacting again to what the government's doing, I think really what people want to hear is where firmly are you and at the moment you're not taking the high ground with these issues.

DON	We for lower taxes, better infrastructure, fixing the Resource Management Act, abolition of race based government policies, better law and order, welfare reform, educational choice for parents. The policies we went into the election with are basically the policies we have now, we haven’t changed those. We need policies additional in health and on the environment for example, those are two areas where we are perceived not to have strong policies, we need to fix that, but basically we still haven’t changed the policies we went into the election with.

LISA	Alright well let's bring Nevil Gibson in here from NBR.

NEVIL GIBSON – Editor, New Zealand Business Review
	Well just continuing this discussion it's pretty obvious that whatever policies you have the public are not buying it because obviously a government that is in power and the economy's going well and it's not just in New Zealand but virtually every other political system like ours, incumbency is great but the economy now could be well on a tipping point and I wonder what your views are, because I mean it seems to me the National Party's rather hoping that the ground will start coming out from under Labour on the economic side alone and there's quite a real possibility of that and that'll bring you back into power.

DON	Well let's say a couple of things, first of all the government has in the last six weeks launched it's major election bribes, the Working for Families package and the interest free student loans, and yet the public opinion polls have us both neck and neck, some slightly ahead some slightly behind but basically neck and neck, now I think that’s a very good outcome given this stage of the electoral cycle, but the reality is that there's a whole lot of water to go under the bridge yet before we get to the next election.

NEVIL	Well at the election time last year it now turns out the country was not growing at all, everyone thought there was about 3% growth and now New Zealand is really quite out of stop the IMF expects us to be virtually nil growth at the end of this year.

DON	And that’s exactly right, the Australian budget this week talked about their growth over the next three or four years being three and quarter, three and a half, ours was zero we should point out in the last half of last year, projected to be 1% over the next 12 months or so and even Treasury thinks we'll be lucky to reach a 3% trend growth over the next few years, so the gap between us and Australia in both pre tax and post tax incomes will continue to get wider.

NEVIL	But rather than answer media questions about where your policies are why are you not pointing out the fact that we could be heading to an abyss with this big spend up by the Labour government, shouldn’t we be seeing a lot more action on the negative front than trying to actually bring the government down?

DON	One of my huge frustrations is that I talk about that in almost every single speech, we're losing 700 Kiwis a week to Australia, the gap between our incomes and those in Australia gets steadily wider, that isn't the stuff that gets reporting because that’s not new.

LISA	Why do you think that’s so Dr Brash, I mean arguably if you look at what was reported this week in the press was the wobbles you hit during the week.

DON	That’s right, that’s right, that’s precisely my point.

LISA	But do you lack the political finesse that is needed to lead and get your point across and attract the type of attention that you desire.

DON	Look don’t forget that in the last election despite the perception the economy was growing strongly, despite the perception that unemployment was low, despite the perception house prices were going up still and endlessly we got the best vote for the National Party since 1990, now I'm very comfortable with that result, I think it was a good result for the National Party, not quite good enough I accept, but not a bad result at all, and what we have to point out is that the gap between after tax incomes in Australia and New Zealand which was 20% in 1999, 33% last year, is getting steadily wider as the Australian government cuts taxes there, as the Australian economy continues to grow we're not growing as fast as they are, and we're not cutting taxes. Those are the key issues.

LISA	With the Australian tax rates they're not cutting tax in the very high tax brackets so why aren’t we having the reverse flow of these very wealthy people from Australia revelling in New Zealand's lower tax rate coming running over here, the logic doesn’t work.

DON	Absolutely it does, everyone under 182,000 bucks a year, according to Deloittes pays less tax in Australia than here, less income tax. Now we know that their pre tax incomes are higher in Australia, their tax burden is lower so we get this huge exodus, that’s the real challenge facing New Zealand, that’s the reason I'm in politics.

FRAN	Yeah but the unfortunate thing was on the very day when Peter Costello was widening the gap between New Zealand and Australia you were facing this you know attack from Winston Peters again which was a bullocks attack, I mean it was just based on stuff you had in your own drawer and you went into a press conference you didn’t pull out what was there, you were more worried about busting the confidence with these advisors in the states that actually protecting your own back and then turning the attack around and hitting them absolutely square on Costello and the differences and all the other things we should be talking about. Isn't that a leadership issue.

DON	I have acknowledged I should not have gone to that press conference without a copy in my hand.

FRAN	But you should be attacking, you should be attacking.

DON	it was patently absurd, I said that at the press conference, utter destruction….

FRAN	But why didn’t you get into the gutter, why didn’t you attack?

DON	The gutter isn't where I belong.

FRAN	Well you belong in the parliamentary bear pit surely.

DON	Gary Tremain had it absolutely right in a cartoon published late this week, there's Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee, Winston Peters and Trevor Mallard pointing to some totally fictitious association…

FRAN	But Dr Brash the image everyone is focusing on is you walking a plank, that’s on every front page, not that was poor visual imagery.

DON	It was indeed.

FRAN	An you should never, you're a politician, you should never have been photographed doing that.

DON	I agree, I agree, I agree, absolutely agree.

FRAN	So why do you do it, why do you fall into these holes?

DON	Well I don’t normally blame my staff at all but that was a mistake which we collectively made.

LISA	So your staff made that mistake?

DON	Well I should never have been in a photo walking a 20 ft long plank ten inches wide across water with the boat going up and down.

LISA	So your staff made a mistake allowing you to do that?

DON	Well we collectively made a mistake, we collectively made it.

FRAN	You should have known that every snapper is going to take that picture.

DON	Right, what were my choices when I got there, I could either say look I'm not game to walk the plank.

FRAN	The choice was not to go, the choice was to stay in parliament and fire the attack back on the opposition.

DON	And that’s where the mistake was made.

LISA	Well thank you very much this morning to Dr Brash for joining us.


FINAL COMMENTS

LISA	Now to our panellists for their thoughts on our interview with Dr Don Brash of the National Party, starting with Fran O'Sullivan, what did you think of Dr Brash's performance?

FRAN	Well I think Don Brash has got a very big challenge in front of him, I think Don has to work out does he really want to be Prime Minister and he needs to focus on that, he's got in my view a mere six months to demonstrate that otherwise it's all over rover you know the traditional time of plotting in the new year I don’t think people are going to hang around they can't afford to have what happened in the last week when really there was a huge opportunity to ram home a lot of aspects about the government's mismanagement, the Telecom leak, the fact that you know quite clearly this huge competitive wedge is being opened between New Zealand and Australia. This is very major stuff, we had a former Prime Minister Jim Bolger saying this week that it becomes a question of when not if we actually get together with Australia, do we negotiate terms or does it happen by osmosis, these very big questions are being posed by Dr Brash's predecessors not him, and I think really he needs to just sort of work out if he wants it, if he wants it he's got to get into the gutter, he's gotta become a bear pit operator he can't pretend it's an armchair exercise.

LISA	Alright, Nevil Gibson your thoughts.

NEVIL	Well it's hard to disagree with that, Jim Bolger in an interview was asked about how he got rolled and he pointed out that National hasn’t won since then and we've seen the line up of former leaders this week at their 70th anniversary and it does become a matter of when or if and I think in the case of Dr Brash there is going to be a good time to step aside but at the moment there's no one really to replace him who can do the kind of things that Fran's been talking about, I mean their political skills of opposition have yet to be shown that they can win, and Don being a non politician's politician if you like that just is not going to cut it in today's world.

LISA	Is that the problem then, this is an economist who's operated in the business world, does he lack that political savvy and finesse that maybe Fran is alluding to to really deliver the killer blows?

FRAN	Well he's been competitive, he's been a CEO, he wasn’t RB Governor forever, you know I mean that was a role where you kind of step above fray but at that time he was also a very firm advocate of the anti inflation agenda, he was a different kind of politician if you like through that period, but he has to engage, he's got to inflict some telling blows and he's gotta get that front bench united working together, but he's also gotta be seen to be one of them and equal, he can't be seen to be propped up by them, and they cannot continue to pull their own punches simply to make Don look good, they’ve all got to get out punching.

LISA	Suggestions in some of the papers this morning that he's been assigned a sort of political minder to watch probably what you're talking about the photo opportunities gone bad, I mean what does that tell us about what the party is thinking about him.

NEVIL	Well he was telling us off camera that he's getting a new team together and he's very confident that that'll work but that remains to be seen, but there's no question that a management change is needed whether it's behind him or him himself.

FRAN	I mean it sort of takes me back to when Sir Geoffrey Palmer you know became Prime Minister and Sir Geoffrey was a very reasoned sort of person as well and suddenly he had to deliver the telling and killing blows and his press minder at the time Karen Beeland used to remonstrate with him, wind him up, try and get him focused and was once taped doing so which was later broadcast but you know in some ways he's gotta put himself in the hands of someone who is going to actually school him up, he's gotta actually rigorously go into the training session, put on the training wheels do it, I mean Helen Clark had to do the transformation, she put the time into it and you’ve gotta decide damn it you know I want to be there and I'm prepared to do this.

LISA	How long has be got in the job do you think?

NEVIL	Oh I think six months is a good time but I wouldn’t step aside if I was in his shoes unless I felt the others were going to do a better job and when you look at them they lack either the killer instinct of wanting to be the leader or the nouse to get across the message on the economic front and I think that’s National's strongest card remains the state of the economy, where we're going and what we can do to reverse the direction in which it appears to be going.

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